← Back to slate
MLB 2026-08-02T17:40 @ Progressive Field Game 3 of series
ARI Arizona Diamondbacks
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.6 proj
CLE Cleveland Guardians
ML -110 +1.5 -110
ARI 36% CLE 64%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Cleveland Guardians -110
61%
+10.9% edge
XGB CLE 67% LR CLE 59% NN CLE 67%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_k_rate_diff
Run Line Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB ARI -1.5 55% LR ARI -1.5 52% NN ARI -1.5 52%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_k_rate_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
52%
+2.3% edge
XGB Under 7.9 LR Under 7.8 NN Under 7.2
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
Loading analysis…
PITCHING MATCHUP
Loading pitchers…
LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
Loading lineups…
TEAM CONTEXT
Loading team context…
ODDS BY BOOK
Loading books…
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Progressive Field
Run Factor 102
Neutral
Weather 82°F · Partly Cloudy · Wind 6 mph NW
Totals O/U 8.5 7.6 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
Loading chart…
INJURIES
Loading injuries…
GAME CONTEXT
Weather 82°F · Partly Cloudy · Wind 6 mph NW
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
86%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
0%
Bullpen volatility
88%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%