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MLB Thu Jul 30 9:40 PM ET @ Sutter Health Park Game 1 of series
BOS Boston Red Sox
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 9.5 proj
OAK Athletics
ML -110 +1.5 -110
BOS 55% OAK 45%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Boston Red Sox -110
52%
+1.6% edge
XGB BOS 60% LR BOS 54% NN BOS 52%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ rapg_diff
Run Line Boston Red Sox -1.5 -110
67%
+17.1% edge
XGB BOS -1.5 71% LR BOS -1.5 69% NN BOS -1.5 70%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ rapg_diff
Totals Over 8.5 -110
53%
+3.2% edge
XGB Over 10.5 LR Over 9.0 NN Over 9.0
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Sutter Health Park
Run Factor 112
Hitter Friendly
Weather 66°F · Clear · Wind 5 mph SW
Totals O/U 8.5 9.5 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 66°F · Clear · Wind 5 mph SW
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 4 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
51%
Blown leads recently
10%
Head-to-head divergence
50%
Bullpen volatility
22%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%