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MLB 2026-07-29T23:45 @ Busch Stadium Game 3 of series
CHC Chicago Cubs
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 8.6 proj
STL St. Louis Cardinals
ML -110 +1.5 -110
CHC 51% STL 49%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Chicago Cubs -110
48%
-2.0% edge
XGB CHC 51% LR STL 53% NN CHC 55%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Run Line Chicago Cubs -1.5 -110
63%
+13.4% edge
XGB CHC -1.5 68% LR CHC -1.5 59% NN CHC -1.5 69%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Totals Over 8.5 -110
48%
-2.0% edge
XGB Over 8.7 LR Over 8.5 NN Over 8.7
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Busch Stadium
Run Factor 98
Neutral
Weather 88°F · Clear · Wind 8 mph NE
Totals O/U 8.5 8.6 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 88°F · Clear · Wind 8 mph NE
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
93%
Blown leads recently
50%
Head-to-head divergence
75%
Bullpen volatility
77%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%