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MLB Thu Jul 30 2:15 PM ET @ Busch Stadium Game 1 of series
CHC Chicago Cubs
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 8.9 proj
STL St. Louis Cardinals
ML -110 +1.5 -110
CHC 42% STL 58%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Chicago Cubs -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB STL 65% LR STL 56% NN STL 56%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Run Line Chicago Cubs -1.5 -110
58%
+7.9% edge
XGB CHC -1.5 56% LR CHC -1.5 62% NN CHC -1.5 64%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Totals Over 8.5 -110
50%
-0.3% edge
XGB Over 8.8 LR Over 8.9 NN Over 9.1
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Busch Stadium
Run Factor 98
Neutral
Weather 88°F · Mostly Clear · Wind 4 mph S
Totals O/U 8.5 8.9 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 88°F · Mostly Clear · Wind 4 mph S
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
94%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
89%
Bullpen volatility
80%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%