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MLB 2026-08-02T20:05 @ Sutter Health Park Game 1 of series
DET Detroit Tigers
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.9 proj
OAK Athletics
ML -110 +1.5 -110
DET 52% OAK 48%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Detroit Tigers -110
49%
-1.4% edge
XGB DET 63% LR OAK 59% NN DET 56%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ bullpen_era_diff
↓ sp_whip_diff
Run Line Detroit Tigers -1.5 -110
69%
+18.6% edge
XGB DET -1.5 75% LR DET -1.5 68% NN DET -1.5 71%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ bullpen_era_diff
↓ sp_whip_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
51%
+0.7% edge
XGB Over 8.7 LR Under 7.5 NN Under 7.3
MODELS SPLIT
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Sutter Health Park
Run Factor 112
Hitter Friendly
Weather 68°F · Clear · Wind 6 mph SSW
Totals O/U 8.5 7.9 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 68°F · Clear · Wind 6 mph SSW
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 4 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
48%
Blown leads recently
48%
Head-to-head divergence
50%
Bullpen volatility
38%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%