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MLB 2026-07-30T01:38 @ Angel Stadium Game 1 of series
HOU Houston Astros
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 9.1 proj
LAA Los Angeles Angels
ML -110 +1.5 -110
HOU 56% LAA 44%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Houston Astros -110
53%
+2.7% edge
XGB HOU 62% LR HOU 54% NN HOU 53%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Run Line Houston Astros -1.5 -110
67%
+17.2% edge
XGB HOU -1.5 75% LR HOU -1.5 64% NN HOU -1.5 70%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Totals Over 8.5 -110
51%
+0.7% edge
XGB Over 9.3 LR Over 9.2 NN Over 8.9
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Angel Stadium
Run Factor 102
Neutral
Weather 76°F · Clear · Wind 7 mph SW
Totals O/U 8.5 9.1 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 76°F · Clear · Wind 7 mph SW
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
60%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
89%
Bullpen volatility
58%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%