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MLB Thu Jul 30 7:10 PM ET @ Citi Field Game 1 of series
MIA Miami Marlins
ML +114 +1.5 -215
O/U 7.5 6.7 proj
NYM New York Mets
ML -130 -1.5 +176
MIA 41% NYM 59%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline New York Mets -130
56%
+1.5% edge
XGB NYM 67% LR NYM 58% NN NYM 55%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Run Line New York Mets -1.5 +176
50%
+13.8% edge
XGB MIA +1.5 52% LR MIA +1.5 57% NN MIA +1.5 63%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ home_sp_rest
Totals Under 7.5 -140
52%
-3.3% edge
XGB Under 7.4 LR Under 6.8 NN Under 5.9
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Citi Field
Run Factor 99
Neutral
Weather 72°F · Cloudy · Wind 2 mph WSW
Totals O/U 7.5 6.7 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 72°F · Cloudy · Wind 2 mph WSW
ML open → now (away) +110 → +114
ML open → now (home) -130 → -130
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
58%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
0%
Bullpen volatility
77%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%