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MLB 2026-08-02T17:40 @ Citi Field Game 4 of series
MIA Miami Marlins
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.0 proj
NYM New York Mets
ML -110 +1.5 -110
MIA 32% NYM 68%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline New York Mets -110
65%
+14.7% edge
XGB NYM 70% LR NYM 72% NN NYM 61%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_whip_diff
Run Line New York Mets +1.5 -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB NYM +1.5 52% LR NYM +1.5 56% NN MIA -1.5 58%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_whip_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
56%
+5.9% edge
XGB Under 7.8 LR Under 6.6 NN Under 6.5
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Citi Field
Run Factor 99
Neutral
Weather 83°F · Cloudy · Wind 15 mph SSE
Totals O/U 8.5 7.0 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 83°F · Cloudy · Wind 15 mph SSE
ML open → now (away) +118 → -110
ML open → now (home) -126 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
59%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
44%
Bullpen volatility
45%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%