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MLB 2026-08-02T20:10 @ T-Mobile Park Game 3 of series
MIN Minnesota Twins
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 9.0 proj
SEA Seattle Mariners
ML -110 +1.5 -110
MIN 44% SEA 56%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Minnesota Twins -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB MIN 63% LR SEA 64% NN SEA 62%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↓ rapg_diff
Run Line Minnesota Twins -1.5 -110
60%
+9.7% edge
XGB MIN -1.5 72% LR MIN -1.5 57% NN MIN -1.5 59%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↓ rapg_diff
Totals Over 8.5 -110
50%
-0.1% edge
XGB Over 9.4 LR Over 8.8 NN Over 8.8
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark T-Mobile Park
Run Factor 96
Neutral
Weather Dome (Climate Controlled)
Totals O/U 8.5 9.0 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather Dome (Climate Controlled)
ML open → now (away) +146 → -110
ML open → now (home) -158 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
74%
Blown leads recently
25%
Head-to-head divergence
80%
Bullpen volatility
45%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%