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MLB 2026-08-02T18:20 @ Wrigley Field Game 3 of series
NYY New York Yankees
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 9.3 proj
CHC Chicago Cubs
ML -110 +1.5 -110
NYY 47% CHC 53%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline New York Yankees -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB CHC 50% LR CHC 56% NN CHC 51%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ sp_era_diff
Run Line New York Yankees -1.5 -110
62%
+11.8% edge
XGB NYY -1.5 63% LR NYY -1.5 62% NN NYY -1.5 67%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ sp_era_diff
Totals Over 8.5 -110
52%
+1.9% edge
XGB Over 8.8 LR Over 9.9 NN Over 9.3
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Wrigley Field
Run Factor 108
Hitter Friendly
Weather 73°F · Mostly Clear · Wind 12 mph N
Totals O/U 8.5 9.3 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 73°F · Mostly Clear · Wind 12 mph N
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
100%
Blown leads recently
25%
Head-to-head divergence
100%
Bullpen volatility
58%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%