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MLB 2026-07-29T23:40 @ Guaranteed Rate Field Game 3 of series
NYY New York Yankees
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.6 proj
CHW Chicago White Sox
ML -110 +1.5 -110
NYY 52% CHW 48%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline New York Yankees -110
49%
-0.9% edge
XGB NYY 51% LR CHW 53% NN NYY 60%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ sp_era_diff
Run Line New York Yankees -1.5 -110
67%
+16.9% edge
XGB NYY -1.5 68% LR NYY -1.5 64% NN NYY -1.5 74%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ sp_era_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
52%
+2.5% edge
XGB Under 7.9 LR Under 8.3 NN Under 6.7
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Guaranteed Rate Field
Run Factor 103
Neutral
Weather 72°F · Clear · Wind 6 mph N
Totals O/U 8.5 7.6 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 72°F · Clear · Wind 6 mph N
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
83%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
80%
Bullpen volatility
25%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%