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MLB Thu Jul 30 2:10 PM ET @ Guaranteed Rate Field Game 1 of series
NYY New York Yankees
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.1 proj
CHW Chicago White Sox
ML -110 +1.5 -110
NYY 40% CHW 60%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Chicago White Sox -110
57%
+6.7% edge
XGB CHW 67% LR CHW 60% NN CHW 54%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ sp_era_diff
Run Line Chicago White Sox +1.5 -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB NYY -1.5 53% LR NYY -1.5 53% NN NYY -1.5 64%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ sp_era_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
55%
+5.1% edge
XGB Under 7.0 LR Under 7.8 NN Under 6.6
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Guaranteed Rate Field
Run Factor 103
Neutral
Weather 78°F · Cloudy · Wind 7 mph ESE
Totals O/U 8.5 7.1 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 78°F · Cloudy · Wind 7 mph ESE
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
83%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
100%
Bullpen volatility
33%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%