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MLB 2026-08-02T17:35 @ Oriole Park at Camden Yards Game 3 of series
PHI Philadelphia Phillies
ML -130 -1.5 +126
O/U 8.0 7.5 proj
BAL Baltimore Orioles
ML +120 +1.5 -150
PHI 61% BAL 39%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies -130
53%
-2.1% edge
XGB PHI 62% LR PHI 66% NN PHI 55%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ line_movement
Run Line Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +126
50%
+5.8% edge
XGB BAL +1.5 54% LR PHI -1.5 52% NN BAL +1.5 61%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ pitcher_dominance_diff
↓ line_movement
Totals Under 8.0 -114
48%
-3.0% edge
XGB Under 7.7 LR Over 8.1 NN Under 7.0
MODELS SPLIT
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Run Factor 103
Neutral
Weather 89°F · Cloudy · Wind 13 mph SE
Totals O/U 8.0 7.5 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 89°F · Cloudy · Wind 13 mph SE
ML open → now (away) -110 → -130
ML open → now (home) -110 → +120
Line movement (vs opening) Toward away (6.9¢)
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 7 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
89%
Blown leads recently
50%
Head-to-head divergence
100%
Bullpen volatility
67%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
100%
Series-game effect
100%