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MLB 2026-08-02T17:40 @ Great American Ball Park Game 4 of series
PIT Pittsburgh Pirates
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 9.5 proj
CIN Cincinnati Reds
ML -110 +1.5 -110
PIT 36% CIN 64%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Cincinnati Reds -110
61%
+11.1% edge
XGB CIN 64% LR CIN 64% NN CIN 65%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_era_diff
Run Line Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -110
50%
-2.4% edge
XGB PIT -1.5 52% LR PIT -1.5 50% NN PIT -1.5 55%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ pitcher_dominance_diff
↑ sp_era_diff
Totals Over 8.5 -110
53%
+3.0% edge
XGB Over 10.0 LR Over 9.2 NN Over 9.3
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Great American Ball Park
Run Factor 112
Hitter Friendly
Weather 74°F · Partly Cloudy · Wind 6 mph WNW
Totals O/U 8.5 9.5 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 74°F · Partly Cloudy · Wind 6 mph WNW
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 5 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
70%
Blown leads recently
12%
Head-to-head divergence
83%
Bullpen volatility
58%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%