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MLB Thu Jul 30 9:40 PM ET @ Petco Park Game 1 of series
SF San Francisco Giants
ML -110 -1.5 -110
O/U 8.5 7.9 proj
SD San Diego Padres
ML -110 +1.5 -110
SF 31% SD 69%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline San Diego Padres -110
66%
+15.7% edge
XGB SD 81% LR SD 64% NN SD 65%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ win_pct_diff
Run Line San Diego Padres +1.5 -110
48%
-1.9% edge
XGB SD +1.5 65% LR SF -1.5 57% NN SF -1.5 55%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ blowout_prob
↑ win_pct_diff
Totals Under 8.5 -110
51%
+0.6% edge
XGB Under 7.5 LR Under 8.2 NN Under 8.0
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Petco Park
Run Factor 93
Pitcher Friendly
Weather 76°F · Cloudy · Wind 5 mph W
Totals O/U 8.5 7.9 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 76°F · Cloudy · Wind 5 mph W
ML open → now (away) -110 → -110
ML open → now (home) -110 → -110
Line movement (vs opening) Flat
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
62%
Blown leads recently
38%
Head-to-head divergence
67%
Bullpen volatility
62%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%