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MLB Thu Jul 30 7:16 PM ET @ Truist Park Game 1 of series
WSH Washington Nationals
ML +130 +1.5 -152
O/U 10.5 9.3 proj
ATL Atlanta Braves
ML -154 -1.5 +126
WSH 36% ATL 64%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Atlanta Braves -154
61%
+3.0% edge
XGB ATL 65% LR ATL 66% NN ATL 62%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ line_movement
↑ blowout_prob
Run Line Atlanta Braves -1.5 +126
50%
+5.8% edge
XGB WSH +1.5 55% LR ATL -1.5 52% NN WSH +1.5 56%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↑ line_movement
↑ blowout_prob
Totals Under 10.5 -132
54%
+4.2% edge
XGB Under 7.6 LR Under 10.4 NN Under 10.0
models agree
GAME ANALYSIS
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PITCHING MATCHUP
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LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
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TEAM CONTEXT
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ODDS BY BOOK
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GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Truist Park
Run Factor 105
Neutral
Weather 88°F · Clear · Wind 8 mph NW
Totals O/U 10.5 9.3 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
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INJURIES
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GAME CONTEXT
Weather 88°F · Clear · Wind 8 mph NW
ML open → now (away) -110 → +130
ML open → now (home) -110 → -154
Line movement (vs opening) Toward home (8.2¢)
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 6 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
97%
Blown leads recently
12%
Head-to-head divergence
57%
Bullpen volatility
88%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
10%