← Back to slate
MLB 2026-08-02T17:35 @ Truist Park Game 4 of series
WSH Washington Nationals
ML +118 +1.5 -200
O/U 8.5 8.7 proj
ATL Atlanta Braves
ML -122 -1.5 +164
WSH 57% ATL 43%
MODEL WIN PROBABILITY
MODEL PICKS
Moneyline Washington Nationals +118
49%
+3.4% edge
XGB WSH 62% LR WSH 64% NN ATL 55%
MODELS SPLIT
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ rapg_diff
↓ sp_recent_form_diff
Run Line Washington Nationals +1.5 -200
62%
-1.8% edge
XGB WSH +1.5 79% LR WSH +1.5 75% NN WSH +1.5 61%
models agree
TOP FACTORS
↑ park_run_factor
↓ rapg_diff
↓ sp_recent_form_diff
Totals Over 8.5 -124
48%
-5.0% edge
XGB Under 7.0 LR Over 9.8 NN Over 9.3
MODELS SPLIT
GAME ANALYSIS
Loading analysis…
PITCHING MATCHUP
Loading pitchers…
LINEUPS & PREDICTED BOX SCORE
Loading lineups…
TEAM CONTEXT
Loading team context…
ODDS BY BOOK
Loading books…
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Ballpark Truist Park
Run Factor 105
Neutral
Weather 89°F · Cloudy · Wind 12 mph SW
Totals O/U 8.5 8.7 proj
LINE MOVEMENT
Loading chart…
INJURIES
Loading injuries…
GAME CONTEXT
Weather 89°F · Cloudy · Wind 12 mph SW
ML open → now (away) -110 → +118
ML open → now (home) -110 → -122
Line movement (vs opening) Toward home (2.6¢)
Umpire data Coming soon
UPSET FACTOR
Chaos score 7 / 10
Underdog upset rate this season
94%
Blown leads recently
12%
Head-to-head divergence
100%
Bullpen volatility
92%
Starting pitcher inconsistency
30%
Series-game effect
100%